Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Considerations on the SELL SIDE



I seriously expect, rightly or wrongly, more mis-direction and confusion. Why Not?
My favorite play action pass is a split wide receiver mis-direction pass. Could we expect the Intervention Groups to do less, to actually let markets work freely.
Rightly or wrongly I do not expect that. Should it come to pass, good, if not we are prepared.

My scans and filters tonite focused on trying to find a balance bwtn shorts and longs. No real luck there. We are looking for Trends In Reversal, so not all are perfectly clear cut.

It is clear that the Precious Metals, the Industrial Metals and even part of the AG complex are vulnerable here. That said, Apollo Gold, AGT, keeps coming up. Every so often when this happens, to the extent I am seeing it, the subject is acquired by another company on the prowl for assets. Suffice it to say, AGT has been beaten up a lot and remains in the lower part of its range. For those of us who like to accumulate stocks like this, I expect that prices in the shaded area will represent a good ACQUISITION ZONE when we look back on it. For that reason, Staged Acquisition of AGT, say 1/3, 1/3 & 1/3, are what I am thinking of doing.

The other stocks I like, DNN, GSS, SUF, RIC & AZK, I think will bottom lower than this, but due to the unique characteristics of AGT's behavior to date, its the only FIRM Acquisition selection I like now.

Other PM stocks that "Could" be acquired here, in chunks, would be, IMO, XRA & MGH.
I guess with XRA in Latin America, MGH in China and AGT in Canada, Mexico and the US, thats as good Junior balance as your likely to get. Decent if our looking at a $4.00 per share total price for all three !!!

Protecting your portfolio.

Some SHORT or INVERSE ETF's I am considering are DOG, BGZ DXD, QID, FXP, SMN, and the options on them.
Some Stocks I am looking to short would be AA, RRD, MW, JAH, CE, ADP, MHK ITW, CNI,
TRV, VLO, DAR, MCD, ADM, and PUT options no short than August, preferably longer, say Sep, Oct, Nov.

Other stocks I see as vulnerable to serious downdrafts are LKD, SLH, LXK, BBG, MVL, PBY, WYN, TC, TTM, BKR, CHE, LNC.

Whereas I find no real new Long Entries for today, I'd keep a weather eye on this whole market, and in fact expect lots of head fakes and such. The drop by Mr. Nasty, IMO, is one not likely to be reversed, from my experience, but I expect a lot of smoke and mirrors to be used to mask its true value as a SELL SIGNAL.

Good Luck

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